Discovery Health’s three scenarios regarding COVID-19


Easter related social events could lead to a third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, according to Discovery Health CEO, Ryan Noach. He reiterated that tens of thousands of lives could be saved by continued social distancing and a faster vaccine rollout.

Research, involving data from 3.7-m people who belong to 18 medical schemes Discovery administers, found that the second wave of COVID-19 was in part due to increased travel, more mobility at night and celebratory superspreader events.

Based on its research Discovery Health has worked out three scenarios:

Best-case scenario: COVID-related deaths are limited to 9 000 until the end of the year, provided there are no superspreader events over the Easter weekend

Worst-case scenario (no vaccine and superspreader events): Up to 76 000 deaths.

Third scenario: about 35 000 new deaths if people travel and socialise but with the spread mitigated by a faster vaccine rollout.

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